Verdict: Case improved. The core is the old US store-and-digital playbook. Three things are genuinely new: product categories, a first number for international, and a buyback that roughly triples in pace. The targets look set to be beaten. The five-year path adds less revenue per year than FY27 adds on its own, and the FY32 margin target equals what Aritzia already printed in Q2.
A Low Bar: Aritzia is growing fast. Q2 revenue rose 44%, comps rose 34.5% and US sales were up 60%. The new plan calls for C$9.5-10.5bn of revenue in FY32, a 15-17% CAGR from FY27 (slide 91). That's the same 15-17% range as the last plan (slide 14), which Aritzia is beating by about C$1bn: FY27 guidance is C$4.78-4.88bn against a C$3.5-3.8bn target.
What's New.
- New categories: handbags, footwear, beauty and jewelry (slide 64), which management says will add C$1.5bn by FY32 (slide 66). Aritzia has little track record in any of them.
- International gets a number: "up to" C$500m (slide 76), even though slide 71 calls it a growth engine for after FY32.
- Faster US rollout: 12-14 US openings a year (slide 36), against 8-10 in total under the old plan (slide 33). Repositions rise from 3-5 to 5-7 a year (slide 38). The Canadian fleet shrinks from 65 to 60 (slide 34).
- Capital return becomes a policy: 50% of free cash flow and ~C$2bn of buybacks over FY28-32 (slide 99). The last four years returned ~C$500m (slide 89). Capex more than doubles to C$2.0bn (slide 98).
- Digital redefined: the new C$4.1-4.5bn target covers Canada and US digital only (slide 53). International ecommerce now sits in the international bucket.
Some Gaps in the Story.
- US store math. Going from 87 to 160 US boutiques (slide 34) takes 73 net openings. At 12-14 a year for five years, that's 60-70, and that's before any closures.
- Clients vs. closet. The client base doubles again by FY32 (slide 28), and revenue roughly doubles. That leaves revenue per client flat, even with C$1.5bn of new categories meant to "capture more of their closet."
- Canada. It gets 5% of growth (slide 93), roughly 3% a year, against +20% in Q2. That's either a very cautious call or a store-closure plan.
- International evidence. It rests on Instagram follower locations that "have not been independently verified" (slide 73) and sales that "have doubled," with no base given (slide 74).
- The cash pile. Returning 50% of FCF as ~C$2bn implies ~C$4bn of free cash flow. Nobody explained why it would sit there.
Peak Margins? The FY32 target is a 21% adjusted EBITDA margin (slide 96). FY27 guidance is ~20%. Q2 came in at 21.0%, and that already excludes C$97m of tariff refunds. That's five listed drivers (IMU, fixed-cost leverage, smart spending, channel mix, geographic mix) for 100bp over five years. Digital is meant to drive half the growth and "remain our most profitable channel" (slide 53), and slide 100 promises "continued gross margin tailwinds." Either the target is a sandbag or the investments (tech, digital, international) are eating most of the gain. Also remember the margin record is weaker than the revenue record: FY26 was still 17.8% (slide 14 footnote), below the old 19% target. The beat comes entirely from FY27.
Bigger Boxes. Square footage doubles by FY32, growing mid-teens a year (slide 39), while boutique count rises only 45% (152 to 220). The added space works out to roughly 20,000 sq ft per net new boutique, about double today's ~9,700 sq ft average. North American retail revenue grows only "low double-digit" (slide 94). Our math puts it near 12%, against ~15% space growth, so sales per square foot fall about 12% by FY32. Maybe the new flagships ramp slowly. Maybe digital takes the sales. Or maybe this is more cushion. The 12-18 month payback target (slide 36) doesn't say which.
Limited thoughts on competition. I hate it when companies pretend there isn't real competition. Slide 9 lists tiers, not rivals. No mention of Lululemon, Zara, Abercrombie, Reformation or Alo! The US now produces two-thirds of revenue and is meant to deliver 85% of growth (slide 93), and nobody on stage named whose customers those are.
The targets
| Metric | Target | Horizon | Our read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net revenue | C$9.5-10.5bn | FY32 | Less new revenue per year than FY27 alone |
| Revenue CAGR | 15-17% | FY27-32 | Same range as the 2022 plan |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 21% | FY32 | Already printed in Q2 |
| US revenue | High-teens CAGR | FY27-32 | Carries 85% of growth |
| Canada revenue | "Continued modest growth" | FY27-32 | ~3% a year implied |
| International | Up to C$500m | FY32 | Thin evidence, "up to" |
| CA+US digital revenue | C$4.1-4.5bn (~20% CAGR) | FY32 | Redefined; ex-international |
| NA retail revenue | Low double-digit CAGR | FY27-32 | Below space growth |
| Product expansion | +C$1.5bn | FY32 | No category detail |
| Boutiques | 220 (US 160, Canada 60) | End FY32 | US openings don't reach 160 |
| US openings / repositions | 12-14 / 5-7 per year | Through FY32 | Faster than last plan |
| Square footage | Double; mid-teens CAGR | FY32 | Bigger boxes, lower productivity |
| New boutique payback | 12-18 months | Ongoing | Test on large formats |
| Clients | Double | FY32 | Implies flat spend per client |
| Net capex | C$2.0bn | FY28-32 | More than double prior pace |
| Buybacks | ~C$2bn; 50% of FCF | FY28-32 | Cash still piles up |
What to watch
- US comps once Aritzia laps 30%+ growth. That's the first real test of whether 15-17% is a floor.
- The margin trend against 21%. Gross margin ex tariff refunds is the real read on the "tailwinds."
- New-category sell-through and margins, especially footwear and handbags.
- Sales per square foot at the large new boutiques, and whether the 12-18 month payback holds.
- Buyback pace against the cash build. Watch for an international acquisition or a special dividend.
Materials: Aritzia investor day materials
