International Paper $IP: Tuesday, November 3 · Event The EMEA business is being separated as DS Smith plc, with IP keeping 20%, and it arrives in London carrying a fresh $1.38B goodwill impairment. That is a long way from our March 2025 deck, which raised DS Smith synergies to $600–700M and set a $6B group EBITDA target for 2027. That target is now $5B. A useful approach would be a standalone margin target with a date, net debt at separation and the stranded costs left behind in Memphis. "Enhanced pure-play European leader" with no bridge from 9% would be a dodge. Also listen for whether "regardless of the path we ultimately take" still leaves a sale on the table.
Woodside $WDS: Thursday, November 5 · Event This is Liz Westcott's first capital markets day as CEO. She inherits last November's promise of more than 50% sales growth and about $9B of operating cash flow in 2032. The deciding question is capital: does she keep the 2032 numbers and the Louisiana spending, and at what price deck? A useful answer would be sell-down terms or a hard cap on Woodside's remaining Louisiana equity, plus what keeping the dividend near the top of its payout range costs. The same growth chart with the $350M cost program (starting 2028) on top would be a dodge. A New York session follows on Nov 12. Our plan: Setup and Take.
Veeva $VEEV: Thursday, November 5 · Event The stock has roughly doubled in six months on AI enthusiasm, but the sell side expects only a repeat of the ~$6B calendar-2030 revenue run-rate goal (about $2B Commercial, $4B Development) with a margin floor above 35%. The math: Q3 guidance of $932–935M is a ~$3.7B run-rate, so $6B by end-2030 needs only about 13% a year. That is not much of a stretch. So the question is whether AI changes the number or only the story. A useful answer would be AI pricing and revenue attached to it, plus how many top-20 pharma are live on Vault CRM versus Salesforce's Life Sciences Cloud. Agent demos would be a dodge.
Wärtsilä $WRT1V: Tuesday, November 3 · Event The targets came out on Oct 27: mid-single-digit organic growth for the group, plus separate operating-margin targets of 14% for Marine and 18% for Energy. That comes on top of a record €9.9B order book. The catch is the definition. The targets are on an IFRS 18 basis (joint-venture results excluded, some hedging costs included), restated 2026 figures won't come until March 2027, and guidance practice changes in 2027 as well. A target with no restated starting point is hard to judge. A useful answer would be a restated 2026 margin for each segment and a firm year. "Mid-term" with no baseline would be a dodge.
Kalmar $KALMAR: Monday, November 2 · Event The 2028 targets are 15% comparable operating margin, 5% growth through the cycle and ROCE above 25%. The margin was 12.8% in 2025 and 13.0% in Q3, and 2026 is guided above 12.5%. Q3 sales were flat at €433M even as orders rose 22%. Adding ~200bp in two years without volume growth has to come from mix and cost. The question is whether 15% by 2028 survives or quietly becomes 15% by 2030. A useful answer would be a bridge in euros: services, the eco portfolio, the cost program, tariff pass-through. The same 15% with a later year would be a dodge.
Early look for next week:
- Woodside $WDS (Thu Nov 12): the New York repeat of the Sydney event. Only worth attending if Sydney leaves the Louisiana question open.
- FactSet $FDS (Tue): the live debate is whether AI erodes the data and workstation moat. Watch for whether the targets assume it doesn't.
- Teva $TEVA (Wed): an R&D day, so pipeline evidence for the shift toward innovative drugs rather than financial targets.
- ATI $ATI (Thu): we hold the November 2023 deck, so this is a progress check against its targets.
- Entegris $ENTG (Mon), Cohu $COHU (Tue): semiconductor materials and test. The question is how much of the recovery is already in the plans.
- Buenaventura $BVN (Tue), Vesta $VTMX (Wed), Munters $MTRS (Wed), Revvity $RVTY (Fri): confirmed, lower priority.
